COP28: Historic Agreement or Rotten Compromise?

Form and essence 

Sultan al-Jaber impressively opened the twenty-eighth UN climate summit (COP28) in Dubai, in his capacity as president. The long-awaited loss and damage fund was officially launched on the first day, and developed countries were invited to start investing. Announced last year, after being in the idea phase for 3 decades, it represents financial assistance to the most vulnerable countries from the consequences caused by extreme weather conditions (droughts, storms, etc.) associated with climate change. 

The host of the summit, the UAE, as well as Germany, immediately pledged to pay 100 million dollars each into the fund, while the USA was more modest and promised "only" 17 million, provided Congress approves it. The total contribution agreed at the Summit is about 792 million euros, which according to some estimates is less than 1 percent of what is needed to support communities facing the greatest challenges due to the impact of climate change. A record number of delegates heard the COP28 president, who is also the head of state-owned oil company ADNOC, deny the need to phase out fossil fuels to limit global warming to 1.5°C, saying such an initiative would "return people in the stone age". Disputes over the language and form of the decarbonization process are already an annual tradition at the climate summit. A large number of countries, including EU members and the USA, have accepted the so-called gradual abolition of coal, oil and gas, while a certain number of countries, e.g. China and India argue for their gradual reduction, citing steady economic development and the advantage that developed countries have made in the past by exploiting natural resources. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has traditionally opposed any mention of fossil fuels in international agreements, and this year the organization's secretariat even sent a letter to its members to proactively prevent any deal that would threaten their interests in oil production. 

Where there is a will, there is a way 

After two weeks of tough negotiations, nearly 200 countries agreed at the COP28 summit to a final agreement calling on all nations to transition from fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. As incredible as it sounds, this is the first time that the root cause of the climate crisis - fossil fuels - has been mentioned in an agreement text in almost 30 years of climate negotiations within the UN. One of the ways to carry out this transition is reflected in the initiative for increased production of electricity from renewable sources. This initiative was supported by 123 countries, including Serbia. The signatory countries of the initiative have pledged to contribute to the tripling of the global capacities of renewable energy sources by 2030. In order to limit the increase in the average global temperature to 1.5◦C as agreed by the Paris Agreement. The share of renewable energy sources at the global level should be increased from the current 3,600 gigawatts to 11,000 gigawatts, which can only be done with timely investments and resilient supply chains. Biomass, as well as solar, hydro, geothermal and wind energy are tried and tested technologies that are literally waiting to be used for the purpose of a just energy transition. 

Interesting, during the COP28, just over 20 countries committed to the tripling of capacity (by the year 2050) of another source of energy – nuclear energy. The commitment involves supporting the development and implementation of various types of reactors, as well as their commercial application to meet general decarbonization goals. The practical realization of this ambition remains uncertain as the nuclear energy industry faces challenges in developing new projects due to the long construction time and significant cost overruns.

The glass is half empty or half full 

Unfortunately, there is plenty of room for a pessimistic understanding of the Dubai agreement. The agreement recognizes that transition fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security. This formulation is also the biggest victory for the fossil fuel industry at the summit. It legitimizes burning gas on the grounds that it is less polluting than coal, even though natural gas can be even worse than coal because of methane leaks. When you look at studies that say just 20 countries are responsible for nearly 90 percent of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from new oil and gas fields planned between 2023 and 2050, pessimism opens the door to cynicism. 

On the other hand, if we were to be optimistic, we can point the finger at a coalition of the 50 largest oil and gas producers, including Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil and Shell, which announced a decision to reduce methane emissions to almost zero by 2030. Methane is responsible for about a third of current global warming, and this deal has the potential to succeed given that this is a purely economic move. Namely, oil and gas companies benefit financially from reducing methane emissions because the costs of implementing such measures are lower than the value of captured methane. Because methane is a key part of natural gas, companies can sell the captured methane to consumers, creating a win-win situation for both the environment and their profit margins. 

Serbia’s stance 

Serbia was represented at the summit by President Aleksandar Vučić, who put the fight against climate change in the context of global conflicts and pointed out the need to respect international law for the sake of increased cooperation at the interstate level. He recalled the adoption of the Low Carbon Development Strategy in June of this year, and that Serbia's ambition is to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. However, Serbia plans to adopt the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INEKP) next year, and in the draft that was on public discussion this summer, the decarbonization of the economy was not foreseen by the deadline that we as a country and society set by joining the Paris Agreement and signing the Sofia Declaration. 

In Serbia, as well as in the world, the key thing for a successful energy transition is the question of finances. Money is needed to build clean energy capacity, prepare vulnerable communities for worsening weather and recovery from disasters. At the COP28 summit, it was recognized that trillions of dollars of climate investment will be needed, but the operationalization of these funds has been lacking. Without a direct financial injection and the political will for change, any agreement on climate action can easily become nothing more than a dead letter. 

Authors: Marko Pajović and Jovana Jović 

Belgrade Open School 

Photo author: Belgrade Open School